Daniel Ochefu of Villanova during a victory over Providence last month. Credit Stew Milne/Associated Press
From the opening tip on Nov. 14 against Grand Canyon, Kentucky has been in charge of this season. At 34-0, the Wildcats are the first team from one of the
five major conferences to enter the N.C.A.A. tournament without a loss since Indiana in 1975-76, a season that ended with a Hoosiers championship.
Kentucky, the top seed over all, will be a target over the next couple of weeks, but can anyone topple the Wildcats? Here are a few contenders.
Villanova
Villanova, the No. 1 seed in the East Region, might just stand the best chance because of its ability to make 3-pointers, which many coaches say is the best way to beat Kentucky. Villanova is 10th in N.C.A.A. Division I in 3-pointers made, with 306, and four of its regulars — Darrun Hilliard II, Dylan Ennis, Ryan Arcidiacono and Josh Hart — have made more than 50. (The reserve Kris Jenkins has made 46.) Villanova’s guards are also capable of exploding into the lane off the dribble, something that teams with larger guards have struggled to do against massive Kentucky.
RECORD 32-2, 16-2 Big East
POINTS SCORED PER GAME 76.3 entering Sunday (21st in N.C.A.A. Division I)
POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME 60.9 (44th)
ASSISTS PER GAME 15.9 (13th)
REBOUNDS PER GAME 34.4 (172nd)
FIELD-GOAL PERCENTAGE 47.0 (37th)
POTENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAKER Daniel Ochefu
Ochefu, a junior big man, would have to battle Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein, who dominate in the low post, for rebounds, a facet of the game that would be crucial as Villanova sought to extend possessions against Kentucky.
Part of what makes Kentucky so dominant is the amount of N.B.A.-caliber talent on its roster: The Wildcats have as many as six players expected to be draft picks in June. The only other team in the tournament with that kind of skill is the Blue Devils. The freshman center Jahlil Okafor is widely projected as the No. 1 pick in this year’s N.B.A. draft, and his teammates Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones are also potential one-and-done players. With its dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon in January, Duke does not have a deep roster, but the Blue Devils shoot pretty well from behind the arc, ranking 42nd in Division I in made 3-pointers (250) and 32nd in 3-point shooting percentage (38.6).
RECORD 29-4, 15-3 Atlantic Coast
POINTS SCORED PER GAME 80.6 (fourth)
POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME 65.6 (145th)
ASSISTS PER GAME 15.5 (22nd)
REBOUNDS PER GAME 37.3 (43rd)
FIELD-GOAL PERCENTAGE 50.2 (third)
POTENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAKER Tyus Jones
Jones, a guard, has made so many big shots for Duke this season that he may have surpassed the senior guard Quinn Cook as the team’s go-to option. If the game is tight — and Kentucky’s defense is so good that this matchup probably would be — Jones should be the one taking the final shot.
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Northern Iowa
The dark horse of this bunch, the Panthers are a much better team than they will probably receive credit for. Are they as talented as Kentucky? No. Can they score as well as Kentucky? No. Can they defend as well as Kentucky? Not quite. So why Northern Iowa? The answer lies in its depth. Nine members of the team play more than 13 minutes a game, and only one — Seth Tuttle, the Missouri Valley Conference’s player of the year — averages more than 30. Coach Ben Jacobson employs substitutions like hockey line changes. In addition, Jacobson has toppled a giant before: Northern Iowa, then a No. 9 seed, knocked off top-seeded Kansas in 2010.
RECORD 30-3, 16-2 Missouri Valley
POINTS SCORED PER GAME 65.4 (219th)
POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME 54.3 (fourth)
ASSISTS PER GAME 11.9 (225th)
REBOUNDS PER GAME 30.8 (316th)
FIELD-GOAL PERCENTAGE 48.3 (18th)
POTENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAKER Marvin Singleton
Singleton is not going to stand out: A senior forward, he averages only 5.0 points a game. Scoring is not how he primarily contributes, though; rebounding is. Specifically, offensive rebounds — his offensive rebound percentage is 12.3 percent, the highest mark on the team.
Wisconsin
Arguably the most efficient team in the country besides Kentucky, the Badgers would hope to derail the Big Blue behemoth through experience and defense. With a frontcourt featuring Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, Wisconsin has the talent and the athleticism to compete with Kentucky. And the Badgers have been through this before, with most of last year’s team, which lost in the Final Four to Kentucky, returning. Wisconsin was nipped by a point in that 2014 matchup, but its typically solid play on both ends of the floor and a direct knowledge of what Kentucky Coach John Calipari likes to do would give the Badgers a major advantage.
RECORD 31-3, 16-2 Big Ten
POINTS SCORED PER GAME 71.6 (68th)
POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME 55.7 (seventh)
ASSISTS PER GAME 12.5 (173rd)
REBOUNDS PER GAME 34.0 (189th)
FIELD-GOAL PERCENTAGE 48.0 (22nd)
POTENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAKER Nigel Hayes
Hayes, a 6-foot-7 sophomore forward, showed in the Big Ten championship game just how good he can be when the opposition locks down the Badgers’ primary scoring options. He scored 25 points — tying a season high — and made 12 free throws.
Kentucky
Not a misprint. If you start a season 34-0, you are doing something right and doing it consistently — regardless of the setting, opponent or style of play. Still, the pressure will only intensify as Kentucky gets closer to the title game. Kentucky has not shown any signs of self-doubt or an internal battle; then again, it has not had anything to lose until now. The path to perfection can be a lonely one, and in a tight game and a win-or-go-home situation, Kentucky’s worst enemy could be itself.
RECORD 34-0, 18-0 Southeastern
POINTS SCORED PER GAME 74.8 (27th)
POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME 53.7 (third)
ASSISTS PER GAME 14.7 (42nd)
REBOUNDS PER GAME 38.3 (18th)
FIELD-GOAL PERCENTAGE 46.8 (43rd)
POTENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAKER John Calipari
The focus will be on the Wildcats on the court for however long the team remains alive in the tournament, but the pressure to produce? That will rest squarely on Calipari, Kentucky’s coach and frontman. He brought in the players and built the program. At the end of the day, it is all on him. BRENDAN PRUNTY
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