Presidential hopefuls are making strategic forays into South Florida, hoping to prevent the state's favorite son Republicans from locking up all the money and support and position themselves if Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio falter.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who's generating intense national media interest and tops most recent polls of Republicans, will be in Fort Lauderdale on Thursday for a meet-and-greet session with leaders in the business, political and legal communities.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will be in Palm Beach on Friday, where he'll be the marquee speaker at a Republican dinner that will put him before a high-caliber audience, many of whom are in position to write checks to help finance a presidential campaign.
To insiders, even prominent figures like Walker and Christie and South Florida residents Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who formed a presidential exploratory committee on Tuesday, are all overshadowed by Bush, who served as governor from 1999 to 2007 and is the son of former President George H.W. Bush and brother of former President George W. Bush.
"I've got to believe that Jeb is getting everybody [in Florida] locked down and committed," said Bill Scherer, a prominent Fort Lauderdale lawyer who's been a fundraiser for both Bush presidents. "This is Jeb territory. Not just South Florida, but Florida."
Ed Pozzuoli, a former Broward Republican chairman who served as South Florida or Broward campaign chairman for presidential candidates Rudy Giuliani, George W. Bush and Bob Dole, said "ultimately, in my view Florida is Jeb Bush country."
But Florida is too important for the other potential Republicans to cede to Bush. Recent presidential candidate-visitors include U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich and former business executive Carly Fiorina.
One factor motivating candidate interest is Florida's position as the largest swing state in the country, awarding 29 electoral votes, more than 10 percent of the total needed to win the presidency. "If you don't win Florida, you're probably not going to win the presidency," said Michael Barnett, chairman of the Palm Beach County Republican Party.
Pozzuoli said it is "a long way from where we are today to the nomination. And so candidates who ignore Florida [do so] at their own peril. Because no matter whose math you look at, ultimately in order to become president of the United States, particularly for a Republican, you must win Florida."
Money is a huge factor.
Scherer said this time of year is "season," not just for snowbirds looking to escape the northern cold on a Florida beach. "A lot of check writers are down here at this time of year," Scherer said. For potential candidates who need to figure out if they can raise the many millions needed to mount a presidential campaign, "it's kind of like a target-rich environment — kind of like a mosquito at a nudist camp."
Analysts said Florida efforts are time well spent. "At least early on in Florida, money's going to go to Bush. So what they're playing for is what happens if Bush flashes and burns. What happens if the attacks that happen now drag him down? So they're playing that option," said Charles Zelden, a professor of history and legal studies who specializes in politics and voting at Nova Southeastern University.
Sean Foreman, a political scientist at Barry University, is writing the Florida chapter for the book "Swing States in Presidential Elections," due out later this year.
"It's a really wide open race on the Republican side. And that makes it a buyer's market. And the Republican activists are really shopping right now to try to figure out which candidate they want to get behind," Foreman said. "Jeb doesn't have it locked up yet."
Plenty of major donors who live elsewhere, but spend part of the winter in Florida aren't involved in state-level politics, don't consider Bush their favorite son and don't have the kind of allegiance that Bush enjoys among many major Florida donors and opinion leaders.
Nick Loeb, a Delray Beach investor who spends lots of time in New York and California, is helping raise money for Christie's political action committee, Leadership Matters for America, which was formed last month.
Loeb said he hears from some Floridians that they've been with Bush dating back to his years as governor, and they don't feel as if they can support anyone else.
Loeb doesn't have the same ties even though he was Florida finance co-chairman for Rudy Giuliani's unsuccessful 2008 presidential campaign and ran or considered running for Delray Beach City Commission in 2006, state Senate in 2010 and U.S. Senate in 2012. (He used to be the romantic partner of actress Sofia Vergara of the TV sitcom "Modern Family" and now focuses much of his time on his company Crunchy Condiments, which produces the fried-onion topping Onion Crunch.)
"Meeting Chris was the first time I have had a breath of fresh air from a politician. He was a real human being. I was blown away by his candor and demeanor," Loeb said. "The more I spend time with him, the more I'm impressed. He's candid. He sticks behind what he says and what he does. He's not afraid to speak about what is on his mind and the issues he believes in. He's not afraid."
Christie will speak Friday night before a crowd of 600-plus at the Palm Beach County Republican Party's annual Lincoln Day dinner at Donald Trump's exclusive Mar-a-Lago Club.
Walker, who was No. 1 in seven of 10 national and state-level polls of Republican voters in the last two weeks of February and in second place in three, will appear at Thursday the Tripp Scott law firm, where Pozzuoli is president.
Walker's appearance, part of a series of speakers, was scheduled before Bush, whom Pozzuoli has always supported, signaled last year his interest in running for president.
People want to see a potential candidate who is generating national buzz "whether it's that they have a chance to become the nominee because of their strength elsewhere or whether they're potentially vice presidential material. [He] is a newcomer to the scene, and there's an interest in getting to meet him and getting to understand who he is. We don't know him like they do in Wisconsin," Pozzuoli said.
Margi Helschien, a political consultant and past president of the Boca Raton Republican Club, said she wishes potential Republican candidates were doing more to interact with grass-roots voters and not spending so much time with people might write big checks someday.
"You're promoting yourself to the big money guys because, I get it, the more money you have, you can hire more consultants and you can promote yourself," Helschien said. "Money is great to have. But you can't buy their love."
aman@sunsentinel.com, 954-356-4550
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