Gov. Brian Sandoval had all but opted out of the race before Reid’s announcement. | AP Photo
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s decision to retire will unleash a torrent of political maneuvering in Nevada, where the behind-the-scenes jockeying to succeed him has already been underway for months.
Speculation that Reid wouldn’t run again — driven by his health problems and relatively small war chest — has led operatives on both sides of the aisle to float a slew of potential high-profile replacements, from popular Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval to former Democratic state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto.
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“It changes everything. Sen. Reid rebuilt the Democratic Party over the past 15 years. Who’s going to accept that leadership role is up in the air,” said Dan Hart, a Democratic strategist based in Nevada. “It changes every facet of politics out here.”
Republicans swept out Democrats’ best prospects in last year’s midterm elections, leaving the party with a weak bench heading into the presidential election cycle.
“The Democrats don’t have the bench in Nevada that Republicans have heading into 2016,” said Robert Uithoven, a Republican consultant in Nevada. “The infrastructure that Harry Reid spent decades building … is still here, but the Democrats will have a tough time finding somebody to take it over, fund it and execute it.”
But if Reid anoints a favored successor, his potent campaign infrastructure will surely be a factor in the race.
Nevada is also a crucial, if small, swing state in the general election. President Barack Obama carried the Silver State and its six electoral votes twice; if Democrats can repeat their presidential victory, they’ll likely stay competitive in the Senate race.
Among the Democratic names considered the party’s best hope to hold the seat: Cortez Masto, one of the only big-name Democrats who didn’t lose last cycle but left office on her own; Ross Miller, who narrowly lost the race for attorney general last year; former Rep. Steven Horsford, who lost his reelection bid last year; and Shelley Berkley, who lost a close Senate race in 2012 to Sen. Dean Heller. Reid’s son, Rory, a former Clark County commissioner who ran for governor and lost to Sandoval in 2010, could make a return to the short list.
But there are signs that some of those potential successors have moved on. Last week, Horsford joined R&R Partners, a marketing and communications firm based in Las Vegas and Washington. This week, Miller launched a law firm in Las Vegas. And in an email to POLITICO, Berkley made her intentions clear.
“NO NO NO. Thx for asking,” said the former congresswoman, now the CEO of Touro University’s Nevad and California branches.
The Republican field is deeper but less predictable — especially now that Reid is out of the race. Sandoval, who just won a landslide reelection campaign against only nominal Democratic opposition, had all but opted out of the race before Reid’s announcement. The iota of wiggle room he left about running ensures he’ll be aggressively courted by national Republicans.
Reid insisted up until his announcement that he would be seeking another six years, which kept a lid on potential uprisings and challenges to his leadership. Democratic strategists speculated that he couldn’t admit plans to retire and had to take steps toward reelection to ensure he kept a firm grip on the Democratic caucus and to stave off lame-duck status. Republicans gleefully greeted his news as an acknowledgement that his grip on Senate Democrats has ended.
Reid’s retirement “signals that there is no hope for the Democrats to regain control of the Senate,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee executive director Ward Baker. “With the exception of Reid, every elected statewide official in Nevada is Republican, and this race is the top pickup opportunity for the GOP.”
Democrats promised they already had a deep farm team to draw from to find a successor.
Among the Democratic names considered the party’s best hope to hold the seat: Cortez Masto, one of the only big-name Democrats. | AP Photo
Rep. Joe Heck has been a close second to Sandoval on the Republican wishlist if he’s willing to give up his battleground House seat. Some operatives compare him to Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), who had to be coaxed into a Senate race last year.
Other Republicans mentioned: newly elected Attorney General Adam Laxalt and Treasurer Dan Schwartz, who have openly clashed with the governor. State Sen. Michael Roberson and former Sandoval chief of staff Heidi Gansert, both allies of the governor, could consider bids as well. Rep. Cresent Hardy, who won a Democratic-leaning district in 2014, insisted last month that he wasn’t running but could reconsider without Reid on the ballot, as could Rep. Mark Amodei, who represents a safer Republican seat.
“There is a talented pool of Nevada Democrats who are ready to step up to the plate, and we will recruit a top-notch candidate in Nevada who will be successful in holding this seat in 2016,” said Montana Sen. Jon Tester, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, in a statement.
Benefiting Democrats is a concerted effort by allies of Hillary Clinton to organize in Nevada, a swing state in the general election that also holds caucuses early in the nominating process. Though she faces nominal opposition for the nomination, Clinton allies consider the state an important base for mobilizing Latino voters, and their energy and organization there could benefit the Democratic Senate candidate as well.
Gabriel Debenedetti contributed to this report.
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