Iraqi soldiers in Najaf salute a comrade killed in fighting against the Islamic State in Tikrit this week. Iraqi officials have pushed back against a U.S. suggestion that an offensive to retake Mosul could come next, perhaps as soon as April. (Haidar Hamdani/AFP/Getty Images)
BAGHDAD — Senior Iraqi commanders and officials are raising serious doubts about their forces’ ability to retake the northern city of Mosul from Islamic State militants any time soon, countering a U.S. suggestion that an assault could begin as early as April.
Iraq’s defense minister, Khalid al-Obeidi, said at a news conference late last month that the United States was “not familiar” with the battle plans for reclaiming the largest city in northern Iraq. He also said that Baghdad would decide on the timing.
Other officials cite a raft of challenges that could delay or complicate a Mosul offensive, including the sensitivity of deploying Shiite militias in mainly Sunni areas, the capacity of the government’s forces to hold recaptured territory and the need to coordinate with the Kurds.
After a senior U.S. military official announced the spring timeline last month, another U.S. Central Command official clarified that the plan is “subject to change” and that the United States is not committed to a specific date for a Mosul offensive. This week, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter said that the initial comments did not represent “accurate information” and later warned lawmakers that the entire campaign to defeat the Islamic State could last more than three years.
Iraqi officials see the battle for Tikrit, a militant-held stronghold 125 miles south of Mosul, as a key test, marking the beginning of a more politically sensitive phase for Iraqi troops as largely Shiite forces enter a majority-Sunni city. There are concerns that even that battle will turn into a bloody war of attrition, but officials argue that Tikrit, which is now largely devoid of civilians, is far less problematic than Mosul, where a large civilian population remains — prompting questions about just who will lead that offensive and secure territory.
[View: The military assault on Tikrit, Iraq, in pictures]
“Who is going to do the job?” Kurdish intelligence chief Masrour Barzani asked in an interview in Irbil last week. “Without the Iraqi army and, more specifically, Sunni elements within these forces, it will not produce the results that we all hope for.”
Just a fraction of at least 10,000 pro-government fighters massing around Tikrit are from the official armed forces, highlighting the military’s reliance on Shiite militias and volunteers as the United States and other coalition partners seek to rebuild and retrain Iraq’s security forces.
A few hundred Sunni tribesmen are among the ranks in the Tikrit operation, but whether they, along with local police forces, are capable of holding regained ground remains a major concern, both in Tikrit and in any future Mosul operation, according to Maj. Gen. Fadhil Jalil al-Barwari, head of Iraq’s special forces. Burgeoning Shiite militias have been accused of mass killings of Sunnis, and that, along with long-standing resentment against the Shiite-dominated army forces formerly deployed in Mosul, could turn the local population against any liberating force, officials say.
“I can attack, but I need someone to hold the ground, “ said Barwari, whose elite U.S.-trained forces have led numerous operations against the Islamic State over the past year. “There is a major effort now to try to work out who will.”
Barwari, speaking in Baghdad last week, said 10 of his units are currently tied up holding territory in Ramadi, capital of the western province of Anbar. The province abuts Baghdad, making it a strategic worry.
Local provincial councils and tribal leaders have been attempting to muster troops capable of holding territory, but initiatives, including a training camp for exiled Mosul police forces, remain uncoordinated and ill-equipped.
“I don’t think that they are quite ready yet,” Barzani said. “A combat-hardened force requires more than just training.”
Kurdish officials, meanwhile, say they face political limits on how far their forces can push outside Kurdish areas and note that they still lack the heavy weaponry they need to provide support in any major operation.
“Nothing heavy has been delivered, neither from the United States or other allies,” Barzani said, adding that some Kurds suspected a political decision not to arm them heavily because of fears of future secessionist aims. “We are frustrated. We are disappointed. We believe the peshmerga are risking their lives, and we’d hope that their lives were worth more than equipment.”
In sum, officials say, Mosul represents a far more complex operation than Tikrit, requiring more detailed planning.
“There is no timeline,” said a Defense Ministry official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press. “Some people are talking about June, but it depends on the success of the Iraqi forces. It’s a huge challenge, and there are questions about whether the militias can participate.”
The United States has estimated that there are just 1,000 to 2,000 Islamic State fighters in Mosul, but Iraqi officials put the number much higher. According to Barzani, Kurdish intelligence points to thousands of Islamic State reinforcements arriving in recent months, many from Syria.
“They had to make some choices where they have to fight as their last stand,” he said, adding that the reinforcements were not arriving in military convoys. “They are trying to disguise themselves using civilian vehicles.”
Barwari said that Iraqi communications intercepts have also shown that the Islamic State is trying to expand its presence in Mosul. He said that there were 3,500 Islamic State fighters in the city in December, before the extremist group cut cellphone and Internet networks there, making intelligence more difficult to obtain.
Iraqi officials and military leaders have also questioned whether retaking Mosul is the priority right now or should wait until the Islamic State’s supply lines in western Iraq can be cut.
“Before Mosul we need to do something in Ramadi and break the siege on Haditha,” said Karim al-Nouri, spokesman and military commander for the Badr Organization, which has emerged as one of the most powerful Iranian-backed paramilitary groups in the country.
Barwari agreed. “The focus needs to be on Ramadi,” he said. “Anbar needs to be controlled first, with the help of the tribes. If we do [these operations] at the same time, it could cause confusion and collapse.”
But in Anbar, Iraqi forces have suffered persistent setbacks against the Islamic State, with the militants pushing last month to within a few miles of an air base that is home to U.S. forces.
“We all know that none of it will be easy,” Barwari said.
Mustafa Salim in Baghdad and Karen DeYoung in Washington contributed to this report.
Loveday Morris is a Beirut-based correspondent for The Post. She has previously covered the Middle East for The National, based in Abu Dhabi, and for the Independent, based in London and Beirut.
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