(Bloomberg) -- As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to warn against striking a deal with Iran over its nuclear program, Iranian leaders are readying their nation for a resolution to the decade-long dispute.
In his speech to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday, Netanyahu is expected to argue that, even as negotiations continue, world powers risk allowing Iran the resources to develop nuclear weapons. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has been concentrating on opponents closer to home.
Last week, as he sought the support of religious officials in the holy city of Qom, Rouhani warned rivals that attempts to undermine his government’s diplomacy won’t be tolerated.
“We will always respect critics and we tell them, just like supporters, that they have received government protection and will continue to do so,” he said, according to Fars News. “But subversion has no place in this country.”
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, meanwhile, has offered some of his most explicit backing for a deal to date, accepting that both sides need to compromise. Khamenei has signed off on Rouhani’s foreign policy, while seeking to avoid alienating hardliners who oppose the initiative and warmer ties with the U.S., for decades pilloried as the “Great Satan.”
“The negotiators have never been closer to the finish line,” said Ali Vaez, an Istanbul-based senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. “There is as much evidence that leaders in Tehran and Washington are paving the ground for a deal as there is for Mr. Netanyahu trying to derail it.”
‘Last Kilometer’
After recent talks, Iranian and American officials have spoken of tangible progress. Iran, which says its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, has gone furthest, saying it’s aiming to secure a detailed final agreement by the end of the month, three months before deadline.
The nation’s most popular reformist newspaper, Shargh, on Sunday hailed “the last kilometer of the negotiations.”
The latest round of nuclear negotiations takes place this week in Montreux, Switzerland, where Secretary of State John Kerry is meeting his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif. On the eve of the talks, Kerry again stressed the U.S. wouldn’t accept a “bad deal,” and that any pact must leave the international community, including Israel, more secure.
Differences between Iran and a group comprising the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany include the scale of the nuclear enrichment program Iran is allowed to keep, and the speed with which sanctions are lifted.
Domestic critics of Rouhani, who held conferences and put up billboards depicting the U.S. as an untrustworthy interlocutor, have been quiet of late but may be biding their time, said Davoud Hermidas-Bavand, an independent political analyst and professor of international law at Tehran’s Allameh Tabatabai University.
‘Wishful Thinking’
They “want to assess how much of the news on progress being made is serious and how much is wishful thinking,” he said in a phone interview. “For now, they’ve adopted a short-term policy of wait and see.”
Netanyahu’s “clamor hasn’t been without an impact,” Hermidas-Bavand said. “They also want to see what the repercussions from his speech in Congress will be” in the U.S. and beyond, he said.
While the Israeli premier’s decision to address Congress without the approval of President Barack Obama has strained already tense relations between the two allies, many in Congress share his opposition to an Iran deal.
In Iran, support for a deal is boosted by the stagnation of Iran’s economy. Sanctions sent prices and unemployment soaring under Rouhani’s predecessor, and the president was elected on pledges to repair the damage. Recovery has been slow, with output growing 1.5 percent last year according to the International Monetary Fund, and the slump in oil prices since June poses a further threat.
Prayer Leaders
“Nobody in Iran, from the Supreme Leader down, wants to be the one blamed for the failure of the talks,” said Hossein Rassam, an Iranian political analyst based in London. “Even if the hardliners think it’s a bad deal, they will support it.”
In his meetings with clerics in Qom, Rouhani maintained that “Iran will not yield to humiliation.” Several religious leaders offered their support, Shargh reported Monday.
Tehran’s provisional Friday prayer leader thanked Rouhani for his “wise” management of the nuclear negotiations. In the past, such clerics, appointed by organizations close to Khamenei, have criticized the talks.
Ordinary Iranians are increasingly optimistic a deal will be reached, according to a Gallup poll released Feb. 26. Seventy percent of respondents were at least somewhat hopeful that an agreement would be reached, up from 58 percent in 2013.
“The most important step after getting a deal is selling it back home,” Vaez said. “Now that they can see light at the end of the tunnel, it’s only natural for the parties to start focusing on the next step.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Kambiz Foroohar in New York at kforoohar@bloomberg.net; Ladane Nasseri in Dubai at lnasseri@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaa Shahine at asalha@bloomberg.net Mark Williams, Ben Holland
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