The most violent protests in Hong Kong in almost 50 years pose a dilemma for President Xi Jinping: clear the streets and risk embedding anti-China sentiment in a city that has prized its relative freedom, or make concessions and appear weak at home.
Tens of thousands of protesters returned to the streets last night, refusing to back down after Hong Kong police on Sept. 28 fired tear gas and pepper spray in the worst clashes since unrest swept the city in 1967, led by pro-Communist groups inspired by Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution. The protests prompted banks to close branches in the central area and pushed the main Hong Kong stock market index down 1.9 percent yesterday.
As China prepares to celebrate the 65th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, Xi may want to demonstrate his grip on power on the mainland as he presses an anti-corruption drive that has snared senior officials and seeks to curb separatist sentiment in the Xinjiang region. Even so, acting forcefully to quell the protests may threaten Hong Kong’s standing as a city where businesses prize the rule of law and citizens cherish their freedom of expression.
“When push comes to shove, Xi Jinping has to calculate what this means for his own authority,” said David Zweig, professor of political science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. “It is a delicate balance between not having a terrible outcome in the streets and looking weak. I am not sure if the students quite understand that.”
‘Domestic Affair’
Xi’s options at this point include: hope the protests lose momentum of their own accord; instruct authorities to clear the streets and take a hit to China’s reputation ahead of a Communist Party meeting next month that will focus on the rule of law; or negotiate with the protesters and risk democratic sentiment from Hong Kong sweeping the mainland. The government has taken steps to limit the flow of information about the protests to its population via official and social media.
“Hong Kong is China’s Hong Kong, is a special administration zone in China -- Hong Kong affairs are purely China’s domestic affair,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said yesterday at a briefing in Beijing. “We firmly oppose any country, by any means, interfering with China’s domestic affairs. We also firmly oppose any country, by any attempts, supporting the illegal activity of Occupy Central.”
Vetting Candidates
The student-led protest began Sept. 26 to oppose China’s decision that candidates for the 2017 election of chief executive, the city’s leader, be vetted by a committee. Critics say the system is likely to produce a new leader effectively handpicked by the government in Beijing.
As the work day began today, the main protest area near the government’s main office in the Admiralty district remained filled with demonstrators, who blanketed the main road feeding the business district. Police were out in limited numbers.
Student leaders have called for open elections and the resignation of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying. They vowed to escalate protests if their demands aren’t met by tomorrow.
The demonstrations come as Xi executes an anti-corruption drive in China that’s exposed graft at the highest levels of the ruling Communist Party, risking undermining its legitimacy. He’s also engaged in a nationwide crackdown against separatists from the ethnic minority Uighur group in the Xinjiang region, where clashes left hundreds dead.
Highly Sensitive
Leung has dismissed rumors the government planned to call in the People’s Liberation Army, which the Chinese government used to crush the student-led Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests in Beijing in 1989. So far only Hong Kong’s police force has engaged with protesters.
“The story unfolding in Hong Kong right now touches on a host of issues China regards as highly sensitive,” said David Bandurski, editor of the China Media Project website of the University of Hong Kong. “Beyond the question of political reform and social activism, and how shifts in Hong Kong society might impact ideas across the border, there are issues like Taiwan.”
Taiwan has its own government but is claimed by China. President Ma Ying-jeou supports the pursuit of universal suffrage in Hong Kong, according to e-mailed comments from his presidential office.
Meeting Tycoons
Xi publicly linked himself to China’s handling of the crisis when he met last week with a delegation of Hong Kong businessmen including the city’s two richest men, Li Ka-shing and Lee Shau-kee. Hong Kong’s former and first chief executive Tung Chee-hwa was also there, the South China Morning Post reported.
“It was an outrage to Hong Kong people,” said Michael Davis, a law professor at the University of Hong Kong.
After the meeting, Xi said that China “unwaveringly” supports Hong Kong’s democratic development, prosperity and stability. Xi was the party’s top official in charge of policy for the city and nearby Macau between 2007 and 2012.
“By interfering too much in Hong Kong, he has made it his problem,” said Davis. “He seems not to understand that if he interferes in handling the issue then he owns it.”
In Hong Kong, the government is perceived to be taking its cues from the leadership in Beijing.
Substantial Response
“Only when the government makes a substantial response, then we will advise people to retreat,” said Chan Kin-man, a leader of Occupy Central. “They never talk to us directly. We are always ready for dialogue and negotiation.”
Opposition lawmakers joined the call for Leung’s departure. Known as the Pan-Democrats, the legislators who control about a third of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council say China is reneging on its promise to maintain the city’s independence under its “one country, two systems” pledge agreed when British colonial rule ended in 1997.
Faced with the demands of the protesters, or a decision to employ force to clear the streets, Xi may consider negotiation.
“There is still a possibility for Beijing’s Hong Kong representative to open a channel of communication with the Occupy Central movement,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, director of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University.
“It seems it is very hard for Beijing to avoid that dialogue,” he said. “The alternative to that is to send in the PLA and put and end to ‘one country, two systems’ and make Hong Kong another Chinese city.”
To contact the reporter on this story: David Tweed in Hong Kong at dtweed@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net Nicholas Wadhams
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