Ukraine crisis: Europe's problem is that it is too civilised to take on a muscleman ... - Telegraph.co.uk

It may reassure the likes of Poland, Estonia, Moldova and other new members that their decision to switch sides after the end of the Cold War was the right one. What it will not do, in any measure, is stop the ongoing conflict going exactly as President Putin wants it to.

In order to do that, the West would have to start sending troops or weapons into Ukraine, and while reports over the weekend suggested that more hawkish elements in Washington are now thinking that way, it is hard to see Mr Obama - let alone mainland Europe - wanting to head towards what would effectively be a direct scrap with Moscow.

After all, the West already has its hands full with Isil in Syria and Iraq. And the strategic threat that the Islamists pose is nothing compared with taking on the army of the world's second superpower.

Instead, the likelihood is that despite listening politely at this week's talks, Mr Putin will continue to prise as much of Ukraine away as he wants. Yes, there will be more sanctions. Yes, there will be financial and economic ruin, especially with tumbling oil prices now draining Russia of its one source of income.

But Mr Putin's calculation has always been that the kind of Russians who vote for him are not as soft as Westerners: they can take a bit of suffering and hardship, especially if it's in the cause of patriotism and regaining the glories of the past empire. More to the point, they can handle a few body bags too, something the West is no longer so keen on.

To put it another way, Mr Putin's meetings with European leaders are rather like a polite north London dinner party where a drunken yob has turned up, grabbing everyone else's food, guzzling all the booze, and challenging anyone who objects to his behaviour to a fight. His fellow guests may be appalled, and may well say so to his face. But none of them are likely to take up his offer to step outside. That's not the way people do things in civilised Europe any more. And Mr Putin knows it.

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