David J. Phillip/AP The Seahawks face the Patriots on Sunday in Arizona in Super Bowl XLIX. Our football guru Hank Gola breaks down the matchups ahead of the big game. When the Patriots have the (deflated) ball ...
QUARTERBACK vs. DEFENSIVE SCHEME
Tom Brady won’t have any presnap reads. The Seahawks don’t fool you with disguise. They play two primary coverages — Cover 1 (man free) and Cover 3, dividing the field into thirds. Both take advantage of FS Earl Thomas’ great speed, which allows him to patrol centerfield. Noted LB K.J. Wright this week, “we’ve only got six defensive calls.”
By not taxing the defenders mentally, the uncomplicated scheme allows the Seahawks to play downhill. With everyone’s ability to close fast and with authority, the personnel matches perfectly.
The Seahawks challenge a QB to stay patient. They don’t give up big plays. Brady, who used the last 12 weeks of the season to prove his greatness, is as adept as any QB in history at taking what a defense gives him. His ability to find the open man and deliver the ball quickly, accurately and on time is what makes him great.
For Brady, it’s all about the matchups out of a diverse offense. If he can find your weakness he will pick at it all day. Spreading the field and working a hurry-up offense could help him identify it.
Will Brady, then, throw at shutdown corner Richard Sherman or work Byron Maxwell on the other side? Don’t be surprised if, by formation, they can gain some favorable one-on-one matchups inside against the chatty Sherman. There’s a risk there because Sherman can recover quickly against what appears to be an open receiver. Turnovers drive the Seattle defense and this figures to be a game of field position.
The Seahawks cut the head off the snake against Peyton Manning last year. It’s the same against Brady.
EDGE: EVEN
OFFENSIVE LINE vs. DEFENSIVE FRONT
Brady lives and dies with his protection. If you can get in his face and move him off the spot, he becomes mortal, and in some cases ordinary. Think the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. Think Kansas City this year. The Seahawks’ goal is to hurry up his thought process. The Patriots’ goal is to give him enough time to exploit those textbook weaknesses in Cover 3 schemes — up the seam and on wheel routes. It’s a matchup they can’t lose.
The Patriots’ O-line is vastly improved since the season began. It was a bold move to put rookie Bryan Stork in at center, shuffling guards Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly. It paid off. Stork missed the AFC Championship Game with a knee injury and is iffy. Against the Colts’ lightweight front, it didn’t matter. It will against these guys if he can’t go.
Michael Bennett is the wild card on Seattle’s hybrid 3-4, 4-3 front. He and Cliff Avril match up well against the Pats’ OTs, Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer. But Bennett plays every position, and if there is a weak spot on New England’s line, he will move inside where he could reprise Justin Tuck’s monster role against Brady and Co. from Super Bowl XLII. Even if Stork plays, Bennett’s speed is a nightmare matchup for centers and guards.
If the Patriots choose to take the air out of the football — no, we don’t mean that literally; both the Panthers and Packers had success running it right at the Seahawks — they’ll go with a jumbo set, bringing swing tackle Cameron Fletcher into the game. They can use pulling linemen the same way the Packers did in featuring Eddie Lacy early two weeks ago.
The Seahawks are thin at defensive tackle since suffering the huge loss of Brandon Mebane, and there’s a chance they’ll wear down from continuous pounding.
EDGE: SEAHAWKS
RUNNING BACKS vs. LINEBACKERS
The Seahawks ranked second in yards allowed per carry at 3.4, and against the Ravens, who had the league’s third-best rush defense, the Patriots got a total of 14 yards rushing from LeGarrette Blount, Shane Vereen and Brandon Boldin combined. You can throw Jonas Gray into that mix, too. The Patriots were the only team in the NFL that didn’t have one back with at least 130 carries.
Still, when the Pats dedicated themselves to the run, they were successful at it. Blount, re-signed in midseason after being released by the Steelers, is a poor man’s Marshawn Lynch, and had his best game of the season in the AFC Championship Game, where he overpowered the Colts for 148 yards and three TDs. Here, he’ll match power against the Seahawks’ speed.
Seattle’s run defense starts with penetration from interior linemen like Kevin Williams before the linebackers finish you off. Bobby Wagner is considered the fastest middle linebacker in the league and he’s always around the ball, a tackling machine who solidified the defense when he returned from a toe injury in Week 12. He’s flanked by speedsters Bruce Irvin and K.J. Wright. Irvin describes the group as “big dudes who can run.”
Vereen, meanwhile, can catch. The Patriots have a sophisticated screen game that can offset pressure. It was part of the plan that neutralized the Lions’ great pass rush. Vereen is versatile and creates mismatches in space. He’s valuable in the hurry-up offense when the Pats go empty backfield. They love splitting him out to spread you out. The Seahawks gave up more than 700 receiving yards to running backs (10th most in the NFL), some of it with Wagner out of the lineup. He’ll be key in keeping Vereen in check.
EDGE: SEAHAWKS
WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS vs. SECONDARY
Last year’s Super Bowl might have been over the moment SS Kam Chancellor leveled Demaryius Thomas on a crossing route the first time the Broncos had the ball (if you don’t count Denver’s first snap of the game going through end zone for a safety). The Legion of Boom relies on intimidation to create alligator arms and take a foe out of its game plan.
To that, the Patriots offer TE Rob Gronkowski, who hasn’t allowed anyone to gain a physical advantage on him. His body frame alone makes it difficult to gain leverage on him, or to get over the top of him when balls are thrown to either side. He owns the red zone — that is, if he’s ever singled up. The Seahawks are unique in that they have three or four players who can match up with him, from Chancellor to LB K.J. Wright. Don’t even discount them lining up either CB (Richard Sherman or Byron Maxwell) on him, especially when he splits out.
They won't be looking to blow him out with one hit but to wear him down over the course of the game. He won’t be getting any free releases. They’ll bang him at the line and make every route a physical chore.
The Patriots will beat you with formations and motion as much as personnel. When Brady threw for 395 yards against the Seahawks in 2012, for instance, they stacked the slot to bring in the corners, who like to play outside the numbers with inside leverage.
The Seahawks will let you catch the short underneath stuff, although they will occasionally drop linemen into coverage to discourage it. Both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola love running shallow crossing routes and can take a hit. Edelman, who had somewhat of a breakout season, is good in traffic. Still, outside of Brandon LaFell, it’s a small wide receiving corps that will be at a natural disadvantage against these big, long DBs.
EDGE: SEAHAWKS
When the Seahawks have the ball ...
QUARTERBACK vs. DEFENSIVE SCHEME
The Patriots would love to accomplish what the Packers managed for 56 minutes: Make Russell Wilson throw from the pocket and plaster his receivers. With their best defense in many years — one much more suited for the task than Green Bay — they would own the matchup.
But while Tom Brady may arguably be the best QB to ever play the game, Wilson is undoubtedly the best to ever run the read-option. Wilson averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt and 8.4 yards a carry, not counting kneel-downs, during the season.
His ball fakes and decision making — when to keep or give — are exceptional. The entire Seattle offense flows off of it. It’s how the Seahawks get into a rhythm, forcing defenders to over-commit.
Of course, the Patriots saw some of it during the year and have had two weeks to prepare. They will have a plan based on assignment football and keys with cagey DE Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones holding the edge. Either Dont’a Hightower or Jaime Collins can spy, or SS Patrick Chung can scrape and, as usual, Bill Belichick can switch up his spies.
Wilson, underrated as a pocket passer, can kill you when he’s on the move because he’s always looking downfield. The Seahawks will design routes to take advantage of that ability, and since the Patriots cornerbacks play man-to-man coverage, their backs will be to the quarterback when he escapes the pocket.
Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia runs a multiple-scheme hybrid defense with different looks. His players are rarely out of position and communicate with each other well. Collins is the focal point with his versatility and athleticism. He can really diagnose plays if Wilson gets careless.
Wilson threw four interceptions in the NFC Championship Game but there’s no doubt he’s a big-game player. Last year’s Super Bowl stage wasn’t too big for him. He generally rises to the occasion.
EDGE: EVEN
OFFENSIVE LINE vs. DEFENSIVE FRONT
Vince Wilfork says he’s taking on Marshawn Lynch personally. He is the linchpin, the savvy veteran in the pits and the Patriots’ first line of defense against Beast Mode. He and Chris Jones will have to defeat double-teams in the Seahawks’ zone blocking scheme.
While the Seahawks’ offensive line has been inconsistent, their zone blocking scheme could give the Patriots problems. The Ravens run a similar scheme and were able to spring Justin Forsett consistently in the divisional game.
The Patriots don’t like being cut-blocked from the back side, especially when Lynch is barreling down on them.
Overall, Seattle’s O-line can be defeated at the line of scrimmage, it’s just that Lynch keeps breaking tackles so they keep moving down the field. Center Max Unger, however, is a good one, and was really missed when he was sidelined six games with an ankle injury. He makes the line calls and puts everyone in the right spot.
The weak spot in pass protection is at right tackle, where rookie Justin Britt missed the NFC Championship Game with a knee injury and Alvin Bailey struggled in protection against the Packers. Some felt, however, that he was still an upgrade over Britt.
While Rob Ninkovich plays on the left side, the Patriots love sending blitzers that way.
Russell Okung could also have difficulty with long-armed DE Chandler Jones. The last time they met, Jones had two sacks, nine tackles and a forced fumble, not all against Okung. That was two years ago when Jones’ game was yet refined. Okung will have to handle him one-on-one since the protection will be slanted to help Britt/Bailey.
EDGE: PATRIOTS
WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS vs. SECONDARY
This is the Patriots’ biggest matchup advantage. The Seahawks’ receivers constantly feel dissed since they were described as “pedestrian” en route to last year’s Super Bowl, but since they unloaded Percy Harvin as a problem child, they don’t have a true downfield threat. Things open up for them, though, once the running game gets going.
The Patriots suffocate you with man coverage, although their corners play a bit differently. While some think the Pats will take away Russell Wilson’s No. 1 target, Doug Baldwin, by sticking Darrelle Revis on him, it might be a better matchup to let Brandon Browner rough up his former teammate at the line with Revis blanketing Jermaine Kearse. QBs visiting the island this year had a 52.8 passer rating with five picks (three by Revis).
The toughest matchup might actually be on tight end Luke Willson, who started the year third on the depth chart. He’s another possibility for the physical Browner or safety Devin McCourty. The Pats have had issues with tight ends getting up the seam and that’s exactly where Willson has done damage. Russell Wilson and Luke Willson have developed a nice chemistry, and the QB doesn’t hesitate going to him if he likes the coverage, usually when they spread the field.
McCourty, the ex-Rutgers guy, has flourished since being moved from corner. The Patriots have taken advantage of his range by using more single-high safety looks. He made a big play from that coverage against the Ravens. But Bill Belichick, as always, is constantly mixing things up, dropping people into coverage and changing responsibilities.
Because the Seahawks like to go three-wide, the Pats will be in nickel defense a lot.
EDGE: PATRIOTS
RUNNING BACKS vs. LINEBACKERS
Stop Marshawn Lynch, win the game. Good luck.
Of Lynch’s 1,306 yards rushing, 829 came after contact, an average of three yards a carry. No one else came close. He is a violent runner, his legs constantly churning. And the more success he has, the more he lures defenders to dive into the pile, opening up the outside for Russell Wilson and the read-option, a dam that broke late in the NFC Championship Game as he accumulated 157 yards against the Packers, breaking a total of 14 tackles. He loves taking the game on his shoulders.
The Patriot linebackers are fast and rangy. Jaime Collins is a budding superstar, an extremely athletic and versatile playmaker. Dont’a Hightower is smart. Both are sideline-to-sideline defenders. Problem is, this is going to be a North-South game. The question will be: Can they continually take on blocks?
Of course, because the Patriots play man coverage so well, they can afford to play an eight-man box if necessary, especially against this receiving group. They are going to sell out against the run with heavy formations,
dropping safety Patrick Chung down just before the snap.
They are also aggressive and will send their linebackers on run blitzes, shooting gaps. That’s a gamble against Lynch, a one-cut runner who will exploit any open gap. For a bruising runner, he’s quick and light on his feet and he has great vision. He senses holes.
Lynch doesn’t mind running to contact, and if he is consistently getting to the second level, the Patriots are doomed. They need to make their first stand at the line of scrimmage by defeating the block and then they’ll have to gang tackle.
Look for him, too, on swing passes.
EDGE: SEAHAWKS
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