Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel visits MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa for briefings on the Islamic State on Sept. 17.(Photo: Brian Blanco, EPA)
Despite the friendly words between President Obama and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on Monday, it does seem clear that Hagel was fired. Just last week, when rumors were whirling about that he might be headed for the exit, Hagel went out of his way to repudiate them. And it is not very common for a secretary to serve less than two years at this stage of a presidency. Clearly, the president decided sometime after the Republican electoral victories in early November that he needed a change at the Pentagon — even though Hagel had been one of his closest friends and allies in the Senate in earlier years.
Despite this friendship, it was never clear that Hagel was the strongest choice for secretary of Defense two years ago. His confirmation hearings left many scratching their heads about his preparedness. But in fact, he learned his brief fairly well. And at this point, he risks being scapegoated. It is not clear that he should be the focus of foreign policy criticism when most of the biggest mistakes have come from the White House.
Pre-Hagel mistakes
For example, neither Robert Gates nor Leon Panetta, Hagel's immediate predecessors, was able to prevent Obama's decision to remove all U.S. combat troops from Iraq in 2011, a decison that contributed to the rise of ISIL. Obama's decision not to materially support the moderate Syrian opposition in that country's civil war also predated Hagel's tenure at the Pentagon.
And it is also only fair to note that Hagel had his accomplishments. He was viewed by many as a low-key but still effective promoter of the rebalance or " . Through frequent trips to the region, he helped work out the mechanics of new basing and operational patterns, coordinating with allied nations and trying to calm relations with China along the way, even as he also made clear to Beijing that the rebalance would continue whether China liked it or not.
On the defense budget, Hagel managed to push back against those who would have cut defense spending even more deeply. He pushed back as well against those who thought that the Army could become the principal bill-payer for defense cuts. Such ideas grew in popularity late in Obama's first term and were codified, to an extent, in the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance. But Hagel made sure they did not go too far. He also avoided hyperventilating counterproductively over Russia's attacks on Ukraine — a serious set of aggressions, but ones generally better handled through sanctions and diplomacy than military countermoves, as the president has rightly realized.
Fight sequester
What does Hagel's successor need to do now? One goal should be reaching a durable deal to avoid budget cuts and restore modest real military spending growth. That would help with a second goal, continuing the re-balance to the Asia-Pacific.
But most of all, we need more effective ideas for Afghanistan, Iraq and, especially, Syria. On the first, Obama is presently planning to pull out all U.S. forces in 2016 — a mistake that his new secretary of Defense should try to persuade the president to modify. On the second, we may need more advisers in the field to help rebuild the Iraqi army — though overall, Obama's policies are already pointing in a better direction in recent months (and Hagel may deserve some of the credit).
But it is most of all on Syria policy, where we have no viable strategy for creating a moderate opposition, and no credible way of pushing Bashar Assad out of office or at least toward a power-sharing arrangement, that a new secretary of Defense will need to do his or her greatest work.
That is why, in addition to some good names already floating around — former Obama Pentagon officials Michèle Flournoy, James Miller and Ash Carter, Sen. Carl Levin and a few other members of Congress — we might also consider one of our great recent generals who have displayed such acumen in the region. These include Stanley McChrystal, David Petraeus and John Allen. Appointing a recently retired general would require a change in law, but extraordinary times may require unusual measures.
Obama should begin his search by asking hard questions about which policies need the most work. And he needs to remember that no Defense secretary can be effective if the White House imposes too many restrictions on the options that we consider in this time of Middle East peril.
Michael O'Hanlon is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and co-author of Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: US-China Relations in the 21st Century.
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