A substantive policy speech, a big network interview and several days of lunches and grip-and-grins across the Granite State.
It’s the start of the Chris Christie comeback – at least that’s the idea.
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Dogged by six months of scandals, anemic polling numbers and his home state’s fiscal problems, the New Jersey governor is barreling into New Hampshire this week, unfazed that his 2016 obituary has already been written.
Just as with John McCain before him, New Hampshire represents Christie’s best chance at getting back in the game, a stylistic match, the governor’s advisers believe, for another authentic, straight-talking candidate.
But no amount of plain talk and authenticity can gloss over the predicament the New Jersey governor finds himself in. Catching fire in New Hampshire won’t be easy — he’s currently polling behind seven other Republican candidates there.
Team Christie won’t admit it publicly, but it recognizes the best — and perhaps only — way to capture any momentum once primary season begins is to win an early voting state; at the moment, New Hampshire is the only such state on the board where Christie has a reasonable shot.
“If there is anyone on the primary ballot for whom New Hampshire means everything, it’s Chris Christie,” said Jamie Burnett, a Concord-based GOP strategist who advised Mitt Romney’s campaign in 2012. “It’s too early and the race is too fluid to write anyone off this early, but Chris Christie has his work cut out for him; he’s no longer in the position he was in a year ago where everyone thought he’d be the heavyweight in the race.”
In a sign of the state’s importance, Mike DuHaime, Christie’s top strategist, held a national conference call Tuesday morning to brief supporters on the campaign’s schedule and plan of attack there this week.
“I wouldn’t call it all or nothing, but I could see Christie making a big play there,” said Ray Washburne, Christie’s finance chair.
In his speech Tuesday morning at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College, Christie made a splash by calling for a reduction in Social Security benefits for seniors earning over $80,000 and eliminating the benefit entirely for individuals making $200,000 and up, along with raising the retirement age to 69 from 67. He also proposed a gradual increase in the age when seniors qualify for Medicare to 67 years old by 2040, from its current average of 65.
“Washington is afraid to have an honest conversation about Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid with the people of our country,” Mr. Christie said. “I am not.”
The speech was a step toward positioning Christie as a candidate who is well-versed on substantive policy and a politician who is willing to tackle tough problems and tell hard truths.
“Strong, decisive, honest leadership matters for America,” Christie said. “I will not pander, I will not flip-flop and I’ll tell you the truth whether you like it or not.”
On Wednesday, he’ll hold the first of two town halls in New Hampshire this week, showcasing his ability to connect with voters in a less formal setting — the kind of event where the brash, loquacious governor is known to thrive.
Christie, who has held 134 town hall meetings in New Jersey, plans to do these events on a monthly basis in New Hampshire, following the strategy of Sen. John McCain, who did more than 100 such events en route to a comeback win there in 2008.
“If you’re going to do one or two town halls, or one a month — why even bother?” said John Weaver, a strategist who advised McCain. “In 2000, we had to do 70 town halls before we even got to double digits in the polls. It really takes a serious, sustained effort to reach the voters in New Hampshire because, to their credit, they’re going to take a look at everybody.”
Christie, whose proximity to the New York City media market has afforded him a national profile — for better and for worse — is also scheduled to tape an interview at a New Hampshire ice cream shop Wednesday with the Today Show’s Matt Lauer. It’s part of a busy public schedule that includes a number of small events and a speech Friday at a GOP leadership summit in Nashua where more than a dozen 2016 Republican hopefuls are set to speak over the weekend.
“What he’s doing this weekend is what he needs to do every week in New Hampshire,” said Burnett. “He needs to approach this like it’s the first inning of a 14-inning game.”
Christie has already made a series of moves aimed at laying the groundwork for a robust New Hampshire operation.
His former staffer, Matt Mowers, took over as executive director of the state GOP last January before moving over to Christie’s Leadership Matters for America PAC. And Christie had at least some familiarity with the first-in-the-nation-primary state: as chairman of the Republican Governors Association he found time to go to New Hampshire four times in 2014 on behalf of Walt Havenstein, who trailed Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan by double-digits as late as October and went on to lose by five percentage points.
But organization and effort still won’t erase the taint of scandal that has dropped Christie from surefire presidential front-runner a year ago to the long-shot he is now; the possibility of indictments related to Bridgegate, which could come at any moment, could deal a final death blow to his 2016 hopes.
“Some might think an indictment would be the final nail in the coffin,” said Rick Wilson, a Florida-based GOP consultant who’s advised several presidential campaigns. “I think the coffin is already closed. I don’t think there is any space for Chris Christie in the GOP field as it stands now and I don’t think there’s any creative angle to sell Christie to the Republican electorate at large.”
Bridgegate is just one of a pair of controversies that have dogged Christie for months. The other is an unforeseen budget crisis that’s seen the state’s debt rating downgraded five times and the governor sued after the state defaulted on payments to the state’s unfunded pension liability — payments that were part of a law he signed in 2011 and still touts as one of his greatest achievements.
Christie strategist Mike DuHaime’s big bet on New Hampshire is similar to the strategy he drew up in 2012 for Rudy Giuliani, who’d hoped to catch fire by winning the Florida primary but fizzled out after failing to compete in the four states ahead of it.
“It’s not as expensive as Florida but it’s still putting all of your eggs in one basket,” Wilson said. “And, at this point, Christie just isn’t a factor in New Hampshire or in the race, generally. When we do focus groups, the people just have no interest in him.”
The most recent poll of Republican primary voters in the Granite State bears that out.
Christie is running at just 6 percent, trailing six other GOP hopefuls ranging from Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who leads the field with 23 percent, to long-shot Ben Carson, who is tracking at 7 percent in last week’s NH1 survey.
But veterans of many New Hampshire campaigns know things can change quickly and that voters love a comeback story.
“Pundits tend to discount the importance of resiliency as a requirement for success as a presidential candidate,” said Steve Schmidt, the top strategist on McCain’s 2008 campaign. “Every modern presidential candidate who’s won the nomination has survived a near-death experience, so this is not an unprecedented situation and Chris Christie is a formidable politician with a lot of skills.
“He’s a Northeastern governor trying to mount a comeback in a Northeastern state that has a history of giving a second chance to candidates who really connect,” he said. “These other candidates, they haven’t gotten knocked down yet but they all will. In that regard, Christie is ahead of them; the question is whether he’s able to get up.”
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