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Obama Again Tips the Scales Toward Caution on Syria - New York Times

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Middle East |Obama Again Tips the Scales Toward Caution on Syria



http://nyti.ms/1tTTyZH






Middle East | Listening Post |​​NYT Now






WASHINGTON — When President Obama said on Thursday that he had no strategy yet for dealing with lethal Sunni militants in Syria, he seemed out of sync with his top military advisers and aides, who only days earlier had taken a more aggressive tone about military action.


That should not come as a surprise: Mr. Obama did the same thing a year ago this weekend. On the Friday before Labor Day, after Secretary of State John Kerry had condemned chemical weapons attacks by President Bashar al-Assad of Syria on his own people as a “moral obscenity” and warned of a harsh response, and after he himself had laid out a forceful case for military action, Mr. Obama stunned his staff by saying he was calling off a missile strike.


Now, as then, the president harbors profound doubts that American military action in Syria will do more good than harm. At every moment when it has appeared that he might be willing to shrug off his reluctance to act militarily in Syria, he has drawn back.



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That reality is more important than whether Mr. Obama committed a gaffe at his news conference by saying that “we don’t have a strategy yet” in Syria. Despite White House attempts to clarify the statement after the fact, the criticism showed no signs of abating on Friday. Lawmakers and television commentators expressed bewilderment and alarm that Mr. Obama had no plan for dealing with a militant group in a war-torn country where the death toll is nearing 200,000.




Play Video|1:13

Obama’s Rhetoric vs. Kerry’s on Syria



Obama’s Rhetoric vs. Kerry’s on Syria



As Washington debated military action against Syria in 2013, Secretary of State John Kerry’s statements were notably hawkish. Five days later, President Obama shocked his aides by voicing caution.


By AP on August 29, 2014. Alex Wong/Getty Images

But it is unlikely that a merciless drubbing from the news media and other critics is going to sway Mr. Obama. His decision to seek the approval of Congress for a strike on Syria, after saying that it had crossed his “red line” on the use of chemical weapons, also drew withering criticism — setting in place a narrative of feckless leadership that has dogged him for the last year.


Less noticed is that this decision led to one of his few foreign policy successes: Mr. Assad’s voluntary surrender of his chemical weapons stockpile — the result of a diplomatic proposal from Russia that Mr. Obama grabbed as an alternative to firing Tomahawk missiles when it became clear that Congress would never give its blessing for strikes.


Although Mr. Obama has gotten virtually no credit for that achievement, the lesson of the episode is hardly lost on him. On Thursday, asked about military action in Syria, he dwelled on the role of diplomacy in an effective strategy against the group, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.


“The issue with respect to Syria is not simply a military issue, it’s also a political issue,” Mr. Obama said at the White House. “It’s also an issue that involves all the Sunni states in the region and Sunni leadership recognizing that this cancer that has developed is one that they have to be just as invested in defeating as we are.”


Some longtime critics of the president said they were encouraged by his restraint. His comments, they said, recognized that airstrikes alone would not be sufficient to defeat ISIS in Syria. It will require a ground component, which can succeed only if the United States and its allies strengthen the moderate opposition in Syria.


That, in turn, will require persuading Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and others to coordinate their support for the rebels. For now, the outside support goes to several groups, including radical ones, like the Nusra Front, which the State Department classifies as a terrorist organization.




Play Video|0:35

Obama: ‘No Strategy Yet’ on Syria



Obama: ‘No Strategy Yet’ on Syria



The president made a statement, at the White House briefing room on Thursday, about possible action in Syria.


By AP on August 29, 2014. Alex Wong/Getty Images

Mr. Obama’s comments do not mean that he would refrain from striking ISIS leaders in Syria if the United States got intelligence on their whereabouts. He could give that order, administration officials said, even as his advisers draw up a broader strategy for dealing with Syria.


“When he says he doesn’t have a strategy yet, I take it at face value,” said Frederic C. Hof, a former State Department official who has criticized Mr. Obama’s strategy. “I’m actually a bit relieved that the president is looking at this to be addressed by means of an objectives-based strategy rather than as a strategic communications issue.”


But as a communications issue, Mr. Obama’s comments on Thursday show that at the very least, the administration’s message is not consistent. A week ago, the president’s deputy national security adviser, Benjamin J. Rhodes, told reporters on Martha’s Vineyard, “If you come after Americans, we’re going to come after you, wherever you are,” adding, “We’re not going to be restricted by borders.”


On Thursday, when Mr. Obama was speaking, Mr. Rhodes was out of town on vacation — the first time this summer he has not been at his boss’s right hand as he reacted to one in a cascade of foreign crises.


Mr. Hof said he was cautiously optimistic that Mr. Obama’s comments on Thursday suggested that the president was taking a “strong second look” at strengthening aid for the moderate opposition.


But the administration has sent these signals before. Last year, for example, it promised to bolster aid for the moderate opposition and began covertly supplying rebels with small arms and ammunition.


Since then, however, the flow of aid has been so tightly controlled that some rebel leaders have said it seemed intended less to turn the tide of the war than to keep them alive and lend the impression that the United States was helping.



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