The wide-open, potentially divisive nature of the 2016 Republican presidential race is on full display this week at a ballroom stage outside Washington.
Five potential candidates wooed the party’s base yesterday at the Conservative Political Action Conference, and four more will do so today. None is an obvious favorite in the party’s incipient race for the nomination -- a rare case for Republicans.
Two of yesterday’s speakers, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, offered a glimpse of possible fights to come with speeches that highlighted differing approaches for the party in the 2016 campaign.
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, though, downplayed such conflicts and said the CPAC event -- a high-profile gathering of activists -- serves one overriding useful purpose.
“It gives us an opportunity to remember that we’re on the same team,” he told reporters.
A year from now, those Republicans who’ve decided to push forward in the White House contest will be traveling to early primary states to compete for attention, campaign leadership and money. For now, the prospective contenders are taking steps to position themselves, including courting the party’s base and fleshing out their visions for the country.
The common wisdom in contemporary presidential politics has been that Democrats tend to “fall in love” with newcomers to the national stage, while Republicans “fall in line” behind more seasoned contenders.
Clinton Candidacy
That could get reversed in 2016 if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton enters the Democratic race, with polls showing she would be the strong favorite for her party’s nod.
Republicans, by contrast, don’t yet have the type of clear front-runner that has marked most of their races over the last 50 years, such as an incumbent vice president or someone who previously came close to winning the nomination.
The spectrum of 2016 prospects for the party was exemplified by Cruz and Christie at the CPAC assemblage, which is sponsored by the American Conservative Union, a Washington-based group that promotes smaller government.
Christie, 51, told his audience that the party needs to focus on figuring out how to win again, after losses to Democrat Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.
“We’ve got to start talking about what we’re for and not what we’re against,” Christie said. “Our ideas are better than their ideas, and that’s what we have to stand up for.”
Activist Appeal
For Christie, who has often talked about his ability to win over independent voters and some Democrats, the event offered a chance to see whether he could energize the activist segment of his party that dominates the presidential-nomination process.
Christie, who has faced an uproar at home over politically motivated lane closures in September at the George Washington Bridge, received a standing ovation as he was about to start his address. The applause then ranged from polite to strong during his 15-minute speech, during which he made no mention of the furor that has surrounded the bridge traffic jams.
A year ago, Christie was excluded from the CPAC gathering after he angered Tea Party activists for being among Republican governors who said they’d seek federal funds provided by the Affordable Care Act to expand Medicaid, which serves the poor.
Cruz, in his remarks, stressed the need for Republicans to clearly differentiate themselves from Democrats and ignore the advice of “D.C. consultants” who say “to not rock the boat.”
Past Losses
He pointed to the failed Republican presidential campaigns of former Senator Bob Dole in 1996, Senator John McCain of Arizona in 2008 and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in 2012 as examples not to follow.
“Those are good men, they’re decent men, but when you don’t stand and draw a clear distinction, when you don’t stand for principle, Democrats celebrate,” he said.
Cruz, 43, also said the U.S. should “abolish” the Internal Revenue Service, “audit the Federal Reserve,” and “repeal every single word” of Obama’s health-care law.
The three other possible White House candidates speaking yesterday were U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, and Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the party’s 2012 vice presidential nominee.
Those appearing today who have been mentioned as potential 2016 candidates are Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky.
After winning the 2008 Iowa caucuses, Huckabee, 58, saw his presidential aspirations fizzle that year. He went on to become a host of a radio talk show and a Fox News program.
Iowa Popularity
He could be a strong contender in a second White House bid, especially in Iowa, where he remains popular. He’s headed next month to the state that traditionally hosts the first vote in the White House race to be the keynote speaker at a gathering of the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition.
Perry, 64, is also contemplating a second presidential bid, after failing badly in a 2012 effort that’s best remembered for his disparaging comments about then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and debate performances that even he rated as subpar. Perry traveled to Iowa last month.
Paul, 51, a favorite of Tea Party activists, has bucked party orthodoxy while mulling a 2016 bid. He’s trying to build on the network of supporters that his father, former U.S. Representative Ron Paul of Texas, built during his 2008 and 2012 presidential bids, while arguing that Republicans need to do more to reach out to blacks and other demographic groups that have traditionally shied away from the party.
Missing Speaker
Although former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, 61, spoke at the CPAC gathering last year, he’s missing from this year’s program. Bush the son and brother of former U.S. presidents, has said he’ll make a decision later this year about a 2016 candidacy.
Republican leaders have said the 2012 primary season dragged on too long and cost too much, ultimately hurting Romney. They’re trying to remedy that by shortening the duration of the 2016 fight.
At a January meeting of the Republican National Committee, a vote was taken to try to build stronger enforcement mechanisms to keep states from pushing their caucuses and primaries earlier and to move the national convention up to late June or early July. That would be about two months earlier than the last two conventions.
The party also hopes to limit the number of debates. In 2011 and 2012, Republican White House contenders participated in more than 20 debates and candidate forums. Some Republicans say the process weakened Romney by pushing him to take positions that, while rallying the party’s core supporters, hurt him among independent voters in the general election.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll released this week showed Christie has suffered damage from the bridge scandal. Thirty percent of Republicans surveyed said they definitely wouldn’t vote for Christie for president, the highest percentage for any potential candidate tested. Next was Huckabee, at 24 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: John McCormick in Oxon Hill, Maryland, at jmccormick16@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net
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