When the Seahawks have the ball ...
QUARTERBACK vs. DEFENSIVE SCHEME
With just five TD passes and four interceptions in his last six games, Russell Wilson has hit a rough patch at the wrong time. And he’s up against a defense that has been playing its best football lately (allowing just 15 ppg over the last four), even while losing one its best players in Von Miller in Week 16. In fact, only four current starters — DT Terrance Knighton, LB Danny Trevathan, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and SS Duke Ihenacho — started the season opener against the Ravens.
Nevertheless, Wilson’s ability to extend the play, improvising with either his legs or arm, is exactly the thing that gives the Broncos problems. They’ve faced mostly pocket passers all year, Andrew Luck being the exception, but even the Chiefs’ Alex Smith was able to make some plays against them out of the pocket.
Wilson, who had a not-too-shabby 61.3 completion percentage during the season, will be at his most dangerous if the Broncos become too wrapped up in stopping Marshawn Lynch. Their linebackers come hard and could be very susceptible to play-action. That’s when the Seahawks will try to catch them with a play-action boot leg, Wilson rolling to his right with his eyes always down the field and a receiver slipping behind the secondary. Wilson is excellent throwing on the run and he has a very big arm. Seattle usually takes a few of these shots per game and, in an effort to get a jump on Peyton Manning, they could go for a big play early on.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos stay in their base defense, use a spy against him and have their ends play contain.
Finally, for all of the poise shown by Wilson so far, the Super Bowl stage can be daunting for young quarterbacks. He’ll have to conquer it.
EDGE: EVEN
OFFENSIVE LINE vs. DEFENSIVE FRONT
With Lynch’s running style, you would assume the Seahawks’ O-line is all about power. It’s not. They also use a lot of zone blocking to catch linebackers in the wash and isolate Lynch on a safety. That makes them very effective getting Lynch to the second level to spring those big runs but they are surprisingly ineffective on short yardage.
Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Broncos DT Terrance Knighton (94), aka Pot Roast, is key to Denver's success on defense.
Indeed, the Broncos’ defensive line is the more physical unit, led by the man who could be the key to the entire game, big defensive tackle Terrance Knighton, aka Pot Roast. The 6-3, 335-pound monster was actually an all-state receiver in high school before he started putting on the pounds, but he retains that quickness and athleticism.
In the AFC Championship Game, where the Patriots tried blocking him one-on-one, Knighton blew up a running game that had been so effective the week before. He either pushed blockers back into the flow of the play or penetrated with a patented swim move, in effect cutting the zone schemes in two. Pot Roast slants toward the left guard, where the bearded Max Unger gives away 25 pounds. Unger has also had two rough playoff outings against big nose tackles.
If the Broncos keep winning first and second down as they have in the playoffs, this one is over.
Since losing their best rush end in Von Miller, the Broncos have had to rely on ex-Charger Shaun Phillips, who has had his moments. In general, the pass rush has been inconsistent, although there is a possible weak spot in the LG rotation of Paul McQuistan and James Carpenter.
EDGE: BRONCOS
WIDE RECEIVERS and TIGHT ENDS vs. SECONDARY
Most people consider the Seahawks’ receivers an afterthought. The top four targets had 19 TDs all season. Compare that to the Broncos’ record-setting numbers. But the availability of Percy Harvin as a X-factor changes things, especially against a secondary that has proven vulnerable. Harvin’s mere presence in the slot will force the Broncos to make adjustments and with only two game films to study, that won’t be easy.
What the Broncos do know is that he’s dangerous with his speed, and he’ll be tough matchup for either Dominique Rogers-Cromartie or creaky vet Champ Bailey, who, after missing all but five regular-season games with a foot injury was thrown back into his old left cornerback position after the Broncos lost Cliff Harris in the playoff opener.
Doubling Harvin will also mean one-on-one opportunities for Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate and Jermaine Kearse, who all say they have something to prove as a unit. They respond to their “pedestrian” label by noting they have walked into the Super Bowl. As previously mentioned, the Seahawks love to take their shots downfield out of nowhere and let’s not forget those opportunities Tom Brady missed in the AFC Championship Game. Denver’s two safeties, Mike Adams and Duke Ihenacho, are big hitters but not considered to be good coverage guys. Wilson could try to target Ihenacho, particularly with tight end Zach Miller. One thing about the Seahawks receivers is that they have excellent hands. You don’t see many drops.
EDGE: SEAHAWKS
Steve Dykes/Getty Images
Richard Sherman leads a Seattle defense that should have what it takes to slow down Peyton Manning.
RUNNING BACKS vs. LINEBACKERS
Maybe the Broncos should try holding up a bunch of tape recorders and note pads when Lynch lines up. That may be the only way to truly get him off his game. Beast Mode has been unstoppable with 249 yards in the Seahawks’ two playoff games because, sooner or later, he seems to be able to bust off the one big play that breaks a game open.
Lynch is really a one-cut back. He sticks his foot in the ground and goes. According to Pro Football Focus, Lynch led the NFL with 99 missed tackles. The challenge is in keeping him from getting to the second level, where he is so hard to bring down one-on-one. Once he squares his pads and starts running downhill, good luck to any smaller man trying to tackle him. He’ll lower his shoulders and start churning away with those powerful legs.
On top of that, he has relentless energy and a will to dispense the punishment. He never gives up on a play.
We talked about Knighton’s role in stopping Lynch through penetration (see above), making it difficult to run against the middle of the Denver “D.” That’s where the Broncos’ linebackers have to finish Lynch off by swarming to the ball. In fact, as the Broncos were practicing back in Denver during the off-week, observers could hear LB coach Richard Smith constantly yelling, “Tackle!”
MLBs Paris Lenon and Wesley Woodyard and WLB Danny Trevathan are very aggressive and have done a great job stuffing the run, with Travathan on the field more than any other Bronco backer. He’s very instinctive and has great quickness, which is why he’s an asset in pass coverage. But he’s also on the small side and may not match up physically with Lynch, or fullback Michael Robinson, his escort on the stretch play.
EDGE: SEAHAWKS
* * *
When the Broncos have the ball ...
QUARTERBACK vs. DEFENSIVE SCHEME
Demaryius Thomas and the Broncos wide receivers won't be getting a free release off the line.
Peyton Manning is on the verge of capping off one of the greatest seasons by any quarterback in history. After 55 TD passes in the regular season, he’s led the Broncos to a score on every postseason possession (other than kneel downs) save one. But Manning has yet to come up against a defense like this, one that seems perfectly built to stop his inexorable run to a second Super Bowl championship.
It’s a delicious matchup. No. 1 offense vs. No. 1 defense. Manning’s up-tempo no-huddle against a defense that combines incomparable team speed with a violent approach that has brought the intimidation factor back into the game.
You may not see that many gyrations out of Manning at the line of scrimmage — although he will change the cadence and go hard count — because the Seahawks defense doesn’t try to fool you that much. It lines up in either “man” or “cover 3” with its corners in bump-and-run (a hybrid type of press zone). It has such versatility in personnel, and its philosophy never varies whether it is playing base or nickel, which Manning will no doubt see most of the night.
The key is whether Manning can get into a rhythm and start moving the chains on first and second downs. Seattle’s one advantage is that it can pressure out of a four-man front or when it morphs into a 5-2 with its many options. The Seahawks aren’t looking for sacks because the ball is out of Manning’s hands so quickly. It just wants to affect him, get his antenna up like it was for Robert Mathis in Denver’s loss to the Colts. Remember when he was a little off at the beginning of the AFC Championship Game? That’s because he was feeling Chandler Jones.
Without pressure, it doesn’t matter how good the Seahawks’ secondary is. He’s going to find one of his many weapons open. Scouts note that the Seahawks’ defense has had its biggest problems when an offense spread the field and gets the corner outside the numbers.
EDGE: BRONCOS
RUNNING BACKS vs. LINEBACKERS
The Broncos have to get just enough out of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball to keep the Seahawks honest and they’ve gotten far more out of them so far. Their postseason drives have eaten up the clock and the running backs have kept the chains moving, with Moreno carrying a workhorse-like 37 times for 141 yards.
Moreno, who suffered a rib injury in the AFC title game but should be ready to go, has become one of the most versatile backs in the game. He was the first Bronco in history to rush for at least 1,000 yards with over 500 receiving yards. The Broncos love to use screens to slow the pass rush. Manning completed just under 100 passes to running backs.
Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor can move into run support and give Seattle the edge.
Defenses usually have their smaller people on the field in nickel to defend spread formations and that will probably be true Sunday. But here is where the Seahawks’ versatility comes in. Their nickel defense has no peer. S Kam Chancellor can be moved around like a chess piece into run support and they can keep LBs Bobby Wagner and Malcolm Smith on the field because of their athleticism. It even manifests itself in defending that screen pass.Usually, linebackers will be in deep drops against the threat of Manning’s arm but the Seahawks’ linebackers are in hunt mode and excellent at busting up screens.
Wagner, in just his second season, has developed into one of the top middle linebackers in football with 119 tackles, five sacks, six pass break-ups and two interceptions. Having K.J. Wright back from injury only give the Seahawks more depth at the position.
EDGE: SEAHAWKS
WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS vs. SECONDARY
How much fun will this be? The Broncos, with as talented a receiving corps as Manning has ever had, will be trying to pick off the Seahawk DBs with rub routes while the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom try to smear the Broncos’ receivers with big hits.
Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, three of five receivers with 60 or more catches, know they won’t have free releases at the line. Cornerbacks Richard Sherman, with his great wingspan, and Byron Maxwell will be contesting them on every snap, trying to push into the formation so they can’t get depth and run their picks. How much “man” the Seahawks will play is a question but even when they are in a three-deep zone — safety Eric Thomas alone in centerfield to clean things up — it’s an aggressive zone. The Seahawks don’t just drop into coverage and eye the quarterback and go to the ball. They clamp down with “man” concepts and jump you. With three Pro Bowl players, they match up against this group. TE Julius Thomas, for instance, has become an exceptional downfield target, particularly on third down where the Broncos have converted at a 62% rate during the playoffs. But because of SS Kam Chancellor’s skill set, the Seahawks have been able to contain similar tight ends like Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis.
That doesn’t mean the Broncos aren’t going to win their share of routes. All Manning needs is the tiniest of windows or just one man getting open. They will also look to get their receivers away from jams with bunch formations and motion. And let’s not forget the red zone, where both of these units excel. That alone could determine the outcome.
EDGE: SEAHAWKS
OFFENSIVE LINE vs. DEFENSIVE FRONT
Even after losing LT Ryan Clady, the Broncos’ offensive line has quietly become one of the best in the league. Manning was the least-sacked QB in the regular season (18 sacks on 659 pass attempts) and it’s continued in the playoffs with neither the Chargers nor Patriots able to get to him.
Justin Edmonds/Getty Images
Peyton Manning needs to get into a rhythm and move the sticks on first and second down.
Pro Bowl RG Louis Vasquez has been a rock and LT Chris Clark, a former tight end with just six career starts, has been a revelation since being plugged in for Clady. Manny Ramirez made a seamless transition to center, not easy when you have to synchronize your calls with Manning’s.
Enter the Seahawks’ defensive line, which can rotate elite pass rushers on and off the field with impunity. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, their two key free agent acquisitions, aren’t even on the first-team depth chart. But they are part of Seattle’s NASCAR front, an appropriate nickname for their lightning-quick nickel pass rush. It all works in tandem. The Seahawks’ secondary disrupts routes, the quarterback holds the ball, the pass rush gets to him. Whether that happens against Manning’s quick release remains to be seen but it does make this matchup one of the biggest factors in the game.
The Broncos might figure they will have an advantage running the ball behind their O-line but the Seahawks have a couple of run stuffers in the disruptive Brandon Mebane, a DT in the Pot Roast mold, and DE Red Smith.
EDGE: BRONCOS
SPECIAL TEAMS
There are again, some interesting matchups here. The biggest thing that stands out is punter Jon Ryan and the Seattle coverage teams. They nearly set a record for fewest punt return yards allowed in a season with just 25 going into the last week. They ended up second-best at 82. Most punters are happy pinning teams inside the 20. Ryan shoots for inside the 10. The only problem with the Seattle punt unit is with blocks, although it seemed to have cleaned that up.
Late in the season, the Broncos took the punt-return duties away from explosive but fumble-prone Trindon Holliday and gave them to Eric Decker, who nearly took one to the house against the Chargers. Holliday is still a threat on kick returns but Percy Harvin gives the Seahawks a return man who can take it all the way, as well. The Broncos may even kick away from him.
One of the most telling stats of the postseason is that the Broncos’ Britton Colquitt has punted just once in two playoff games, after the opening series of the AFC Championship Game. That’s how little the Broncos have needed to control field position.
Broncos PK Matt Prater may have the strongest leg in the NFL. The Seahawks’ Steve Hauschka doesn’t have as much range but he has made 17 of 18 field goals from 40 yards or longer.
EDGE: SEAHAWKS
* * *
PREDICTION
Seahawks 24, Broncos 21: It sets up to be as good a Super Bowl as we have ever seen. The Seahawks narrowly win the battle of matchups. Does Manning hold the trump card? Not against this defense.
Source: Top Stories - Google News - http://ift.tt/MJNAdC
0 comments:
Post a Comment