Nigeria has defied all expectations. In the run up to last Saturday’s elections, politicians and analysts at home and abroad sketched out a range of scenarios, most of which ended in some kind of crash. Barons of the ruling People’s Democratic party — in power since 1999 — were plotting to install an interim national government before the people even had a chance to vote. Some in their ranks preferred to hand over to the military rather than concede defeat in elections to General Muhammadu Buhari, the opposition challenger to incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.
In the event, millions of Nigerians queued up to vote patiently — and for the most part peacefully. By a healthy but relatively narrow margin of 2.3m votes, they put their faith in an ascetic former military ruler who has pledged to stamp out corruption, spread wealth more evenly and restore law and order to a pivotal African nation that was at risk of splitting at the seams. The outcome, precisely because it was not inevitable, is all the more remarkable.
When on Tuesday Mr Jonathan conceded defeat before the final vote count was official, the sense of foreboding that has possessed Nigeria in the fraught build up to the polls, evaporated almost instantly. The outgoing president deserves the highest praise for that single act of humility, which has probably saved many lives. It has also provided a fillip to political reformers across the continent at a time when the path of many African countries towards more democratic rule is strewn with bumps.
There remain many risks ahead. But the significance of this unprecedented event in Nigeria’s history — the first time an incumbent president has been defeated at the ballot box and gracefully accepted to go — cannot be underestimated.
Mr Jonathan may be regarded among some of the more cynical members of his own party, and those from his home region in the oil-producing Niger who have profited most from his rule, as the man who failed to secure their turn at the trough for a second four-year term. Among Nigerians more broadly, he should be celebrated, for all the governance failures during his five year tenure, as someone who resisted pressure to derail Nigeria’s fledgling democracy and sought to smooth the path to more accountable rule.
The role of the Independent National Electoral Commission was also critical. Despite initial glitches, new voter identification technology helped to curtail the extraordinary levels of electoral fraud that made Nigerians cynical about their ability to vote out politicians who disappoint. The country’s institutions remain worryingly weak but INEC is one that has shown over the past week it is strengthening in a way that benefits stability.
Gen Buhari’s election signals the rejection by Nigerians of the corruption, crony capitalism and criminality that have undermined the country’s potential. The mass of his supporters were the downtrodden, people who have had little or no opportunity to share in the past decade and a half of uneven economic growth. The choice they have made must bring with it a greater sense of inclusion and accountability among those they have newly brought to power.
Given the weaker oil price and Nigeria’s minimal fiscal savings, the incoming government faces a daunting task if it is to meet expectations. But with the winds of democratic change behind it, this is Nigeria’s great opportunity to reduce its dependency on oil, tackle predators within the political system, and foster a broader based economy that delivers benefits to all.
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