JAKARTA, Indonesia- Indonesia’s execution of seven foreign drug convicts early Wednesday sparked reproach from world leaders, but any repercussions are unlikely to have a lasting impact on international relations or the country’s economy.
The death penalty enjoys wide support in Indonesia, and President Joko Widodo is likely to get a slight boost domestically, say analysts, as he tries to recover from policy bungles early in his term while distancing his administration from that of his predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono—a government seen by many voters as indecisive and slow-moving.
With executions in January and again this week, Mr. Widodo has firmly diverged from Mr. Yuhdoyono’s policy of frequently granting clemency to death-row convicts, say analysts.
Those executed Wednesday included two Australians, Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan, who were convicted in 2006 as leaders of the “Bali Nine” heroin-smuggling ring. The others included four Nigerians, a Brazilian and an Indonesian. All eight had been in prison for years, convicted of possessing or trafficking drugs like heroin, cocaine and marijuana.
The decision to proceed with the executions “represents for most Indonesians a return to the regular order under a president who is unafraid to enforce Indonesian laws, even when placed under intense pressure to offer foreigners special dispensation,” Aaron Connelly of the Sydney-based Lowy Institute for International Policy wrote this week. “To most Indonesians, this is reform.”
International relations are another matter, however.
Australia said it would withdraw its ambassador to Indonesia after the execution of two Australians among the group, despite appeals from the highest levels of government in recent weeks. “We respect Indonesia’s sovereignty but we do deplore what’s been done and this cannot be simply business as usual,” Prime Minister Tony Abbott said.
Australia has never before withdrawn a senior envoy in reaction to executions of its citizens by other nations.
But the step is seen as largely symbolic, and likely temporary. Indonesia’s Vice President Jusuf Kalla told reporters Wednesday that he doesn’t expect trade relations between the two neighbors to be affected. “We import more from Australia, meaning they stand to lose if they stop trading with Indonesia.” He said the recalling of the Australian ambassador would likely last one to two months.
When Indonesia executed foreigners from Brazil and the Netherlands in January, both countries briefly recalled their ambassadors. In the lead-up to Wednesday’s executions, there was no talk from Australia or other countries of ending aid programs, imposing economic sanctions or reducing efforts in areas of vital cooperation such as security. Australia enjoys a trade surplus with Indonesia and could stand to lose from any boycott.
Mr. Widodo risks being viewed negatively by parts of the international community that had already suspected he was turning more inward than his predecessor, pushing on with executions despite pleas from the United Nations secretary-general and others.
“The macabre spectacle may have scored some points domestically but has damaged Indonesia’s reputation abroad,” said Paul Rowland, a political analyst based in Jakarta. But even at home, Mr. Widodo “has also alienated the small but politically influential human rights community that were one of the demographics that campaigned hardest for him.”
The president cut short his attendance at a meeting of 10 Southeast Asian leaders in Malaysia this week, trading places with his vice president on the final day. His tentative plans to visit the U.S. this summer have been put on hold due to what his office termed scheduling conflicts.
Critics contend Mr. Widodo is tackling a very real drug problem in Indonesia out of personal conviction, but with a flawed reading of the impact of the death penalty and the facts of drug use in Indonesia. He regularly cites a study suggesting dozens of young people die every day in Indonesia due to drug use, but critics question the study’s methodology and conclusions.
This week, Mr. Widodo told reporters, “Don’t just write about the executions, but go see and write about those who are rolling on the floor in pain” from drug use.
Drug use is indeed pervasive in the Southeast Asian nation, with the number of drug users rising a third in five years to more than 4 million, the National Narcotics Agency says. Narcotics arrests have been on the rise, hitting more than 21,000 in 2013 compared with more than 10,000 in 2009. Still, much of this is a local problem, experts say, pointing to the abundance of ecstasy laboratories even in the heavily policed capital of Jakarta.
In economic terms, the executions likely change nothing for Indonesia, a fast-growing economy—Southeast Asia’s largest—that is nonetheless facing headwinds as demand for its commodity exports continues to fall amid a global slowdown, and as structural weakness remains under reform at home. The nearly $900 billion economy grew at 5% last year, its slowest posting in five years.
This week, the local stock exchange erased gains made this year on signs of poor corporate earnings, diving 3.6% Tuesday. On Wednesday, it fell a further 3.0% in afternoon trade to its lowest point since December. Analysts didn't cite fallout from the executions but instead a continued pullback from record highs as investors adjust their expectations about future performance.
Write to Ben Otto at ben.otto@wsj.com and I Made Sentana at i-made.sentana@wsj.com
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