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Thursday, October 2, 2014

MLB playoff reset: What we learned from the wild cards - USA TODAY



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Just two wild-card games are in the books, a mere appetizer to the 40 potential playoff games in the offing through the World Series.


But in the 24 hours spanning the Kansas City Royals' wild 12-inning conquest of the Oakland Athletics and the San Francisco Giants' shutout of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the complexion of these playoffs changed significantly.


Here's five things we learned in the wild card round, looking ahead to the final field of eight:


The Angels are No. 1 with a bullet again


Los Angeles hasn't played a game in four days, but plenty of good things happened since it finished playing out the string on Sunday.


No. 1 is the Royals vanquishing the A's.


While Oakland's 15-31 stagger to finish its season made it a potential playoff patsy, the A's also had what the Angels lacked: Deep starting pitching, good enough to potentially harness the Angels' lineup, the highest-scoring bunch in the major leagues.







But Kansas City's rally means the Angels went from facing Jeff Samardzija – he of the 2.99 ERA, 202 strikeouts and 22-inning scoreless streak last month – to Jason Vargas in Thursday's Game 1. That's a leap in WHIP from 1.06 to 1.27, and in ERA to 3.71. Vargas would also line up to start a decisive Game 5. Batter up!


Meanwhile, Angels rookie Matt Shoemaker – kept in bubble wrap since a rib-cage strain three weeks ago – was cleared to start Game 2, and manager Mike Scioscia said ace Jered Weaver and Shoemaker would start Games 4 and 5, if necessary, on three days' rest. That's a strong indication Shoemaker – 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA - is more than good to go.


And not that they need him, but slugging outfielder Josh Hamilton will be in the Game 1 lineup, his first appearance since Sept. 4 due to shoulder and rib cage issues.


Anything's possible with an ace


No one knows that better than the San Francisco Giants, who have World Series rings to show for the heroics of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain in 2010 and 2012.


Madison Bumgarner won crucial games in those postseasons, too, and in Wednesday's NL wild card game showed he's good enough to change the complexion of a postseason himself.







Sure, the Washington Nationals are still in prime position in their Division Series against the Giants. Bumgarner's four-hit, 10-strikeout shutout of the Pirates takes him out of Games 1 and 2 of the best-of-five. And when he does pitch in Game 3, the Nationals can offer up their own accomplished October star, Doug Fister.


But Bumgarner's dominance of a red-hot Pirates was so thorough that it wasn't hard to imagine a sense of urgency already ramping up in Washington – that the Nationals must hold serve in their two games at home, knowing they want no part of going West and falling in a 2-1 hole after three games.


On the flip side, the Giants enter Games 1 and 2 knowing they're coming after house money. And good things usually happen when teams are playing that free and easy.


Managers matter


The hottest seat in the dugout has been, to a degree, marginalized by front offices who insist on greater day-to-day field influence – and hire men willing to stay on message for management. That's easy enough to enforce over the course of a long season.


But there's no dugout Batphone to bail out an overmatched manager in the heat of a playoff game.


Royals manager Ned Yost's bullpen management – inflexible at times, irrational at others - already drew significant ire in Kansas City. He took his act national in the AL wild card game.


Yost's notoriety only deepened with his ill-fated decision to throw Yordano Ventura into the fire of a two-on, no-out situation that resulted in a three-run home run. Given a night to sleep on it, Yost didn't back down Wednesday, acknowledging he "was a dope last night for a little while," but stressing "it doesn't mean it wasn't the right move and I wouldn't do it again."


OK, then.


Sure, skippers are only as good as the players – more specifically, the pitchers – at their disposal. But great ones can make a difference, and some of the Division Series matchups are pretty stark:


Three likely Hall of Famers vs. Yost and two rookies.


Angels manager Mike Scioscia will match wits with Yost, while Giants manager Bruce Bochy will contend with first-year Nationals manager Matt Williams. Buck Showalter, meanwhile, will lead his Orioles against rookie Brad Ausmus' loaded Tigers team.


Would Showalter look smarter with Max Scherzer, David Price and Justin Verlander on his side? Or, Bochy, if he had four aces at his disposal as Williams does, rather than one in Bumgarner? Yes, and yes.


But it will be fascinating to see how much savvy, experience and a willingness to be flexible matter.


It helps to have a catcher


The A's found this out the hard way when Kansas City rolled up seven stolen bases – six off backup Derek Norris – in the AL wild card game.


And who do the Royals' rabbits have next? Angels catcher Chris Iannetta, who threw out runners at a 30% clip this year, roughly the median among regular catchers.


While the Royals' stolen base binge came in a 9-8 game, scoring is typically at a premium, only enhancing the value of a stolen base.


Keep that in mind in the Dodgers-Cardinals NL Division Series, which features the biggest chasm among catchers.


Dodger catcher A.J Ellis nailed just 25% of would-be runners this year. His counterpart, perennial Gold Glover Yadier Molina, was almost twice as good – 47%.


Beware of the Brandons


Yes, the Giants are starting to get almost Cardinal-like in their ability to endure – perhaps, annoy? - in October. Brandon Crawford's grand slam against the Pirates elicited memories of his excellent work on defense and surprising contributions with the bat in their 2012 run.


But it's Brandon Belt whose contributions may prove most significant.


An injury-wracked regular season nearly ended due to a concussion, but Belt returned to the lineup Sept. 19 and finished the season in resounding fashion – a .381/.458/.619 slash line in his final 24 plate appearances. And then he backed that up with a two-hit, three-RBI night against the Pirates.


He gives the Giants lineup crucial length, and his left-handed bat makes them less reliant on Buster Posey and Hunter Pence against dominant right-handers – like the kind the Nationals have.


Wild-card winners are 1-4 in postseason series since this format began in 2012, and none have advanced to the World Series.


It would be so very Giants for them to become the first.


GALLERY: NL wild card game






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